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23 Nov 2023

23 Nov 2023

USD losing its shine

We began to be more vocal about our thoughts the USD (and resultant weakness in the AUD) was looking on shaky foundations and was set to reverse course in mid-September (see Market Musings: AUD: Always darkest before the dawn). In hindsight we were a few weeks early, but nevertheless the macro landscape has evolved as we predicted causing the USD to lose ground (and the AUD to rebound) over the past month or so. As it was stressed at the start of my career, in financial markets it is better to make the right calls early, rather than hold the...

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23 Nov 2023

Holiday markets

• Quiet markets. US closed for Thanksgiving. European equities ticked up & bond yields rose. FX moves limited. AUD hovering near multi-month highs.• PMIs. Eurozone & UK PMIs a bit better than expected. Eurozone still in the ‘contraction’ zone but momentum looks to be stabilising.• Data quirks. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI due next week. We think sales may fall & the CPI indicator may send a false signal. Near-term risks for the AUD. With the US on holiday celebrating Thanksgiving markets have been fairly quiet. This is likely to remain the case today given reduced activity in the...

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