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27 Jul 2023

Shake, rattle & roll

• Divergence. A ‘dovish’ ECB hike & solid US data weighed on the EUR. Reports the BoJ could tweak its policy settings today also boosted the JPY.• AUD weaker. The USD rebound pushed down the AUD. Locally, retail sales are due today. The US PCE deflator & employment cost index are released.• BoJ in focus. Higher inflation means the BoJ’s ultra-loose stance is untenable. A change would be step along the normalisation path & could jolt markets. Markets were jolted overnight by the combination of a ‘dovish’ ECB rate hike, strong US data, and reports the Bank of Japan could...

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27 Jul 2023

Dollar pushes higher on US exceptionalism in growth and rates

The euro is weakening against the dollar after the European Central Bank executed an (arguably) dovish rate hike and updated numbers showed the US economy growing more quickly than expected in the second quarter. High-beta currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars and the Mexican peso are up, while other risk proxies – like the VIX equity “fear index” and the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) bond market measure – are trending down as markets buy into a “Goldilocks” scenario for the economy, with growth remaining relatively robust even as inflation pressures subside.   North America The US economy expanded...

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