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10 Aug 2022

Market Wire: US Inflation Decelerates More Than Expected

Headline US consumer prices rose by less than anticipated in July, putting downward pressure on short-term yields as market participants brace for a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the consumer price index climbed 8.5 percent in July from the same period last year, essentially flat on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by major data providers expected a 9.1 percent annual gain and 0.2 percent relative to June. A 4.6 percent month-over-month drop in energy prices — helped by an 7.7 percent tumble in the gasoline sub-index....

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Market Briefing: A Calm Before the Storm Before the Calm Settles Over Markets

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Investors cut exposures ahead of this morning’s critically-important inflation print, leaving most major currency pairs unchanged in overnight trading. The dollar is modestly weaker, and the Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with two-year yields exceeding their ten-year equivalents by almost 50 basis points – the most since 2000, and a sign that investors expect the economy to fall into a recession. Markets expect inflation pressures to subside somewhat, with the headline measure rising 8.7 percent year-over-year in July, down from 9.1 percent in June. The core measure is seen rising to 6.1 percent from 5.9 percent...

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