Weekly Chartbook, January 29

The dollar is holding steady amid holiday-thinned trading conditions as investors process a raft of central bank policy announcements and brace for a spike in geopolitical tensions in the hours or days ahead. Treasury yields are down, equity futures are soft, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive counterparts after reports circulated suggesting that the US will join Israeli...

• Holding on. Consolidation in markets with US equities & bond yields little changed. Lower vol. helped AUD & NZD edge higher.• US Fed. Policymakers still projecting two cuts in late-2025. But fewer reductions are anticipated in 2026 because of tariff-related inflation risks.• AU jobs. Monthly Australian employment figures out today. After a strong result in April will the volatile series show...

As had been widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve left benchmark borrowing rates unchanged this afternoon, and officials delivered a finely-balanced message in the accompanying communications, suggesting that they intend to remain on the sidelines until a clearer picture of underlying economic conditions can emerge. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to maintain the target range...

The dollar is giving back yesterday’s gains, Treasury yields are holding steady, and North American equity markets are moving sideways as investors await news on the US role in the Israel-Iran conflict — and brace for this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. Oil prices leapt higher during yesterday’s session after US president Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”...

• Turnaround. Middle East concerns returned overnight. Oil rose, US equities & bond yields declined. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground.• Fluid situation. More headline driven volatility looks likely near-term. As seen the past few days sentiment can turn course quickly.• US Fed. No policy changes expected tomorrow. But will the US Fed tweak its ‘dot plot’ given inflation risks stemming...

The dollar is up slightly this morning, but remains on course toward its worst year-to-date performance in this century, even as geopolitical risks simmer in the background and the Federal Reserve grapples with a raft of potential inflation risks. Yields are under pressure, equity markets are headed for a mixed open, and measures of risk sentiment are softening ahead of an expected Israeli assault...

• Improved vibes. Turnaround in markets overnight on reports Iran is looking to restart nuclear talks. Equities rose, oil prices eased. AUD & NZD rebounded.• Macro trends. Middle East situation remains fluid. Data wise, US retail sales out tonight. Signs consumer spending is holding up may give the USD a boost.• China pulse. Retail sales in China stronger. Industrial output also expanded. Developments...

Measures of market stress are moderating ahead of a week crammed with a combustible array of potential volatility catalysts including an escalation in Middle East hostilities, three major central bank meetings and a raft of first-tier economic data. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to a recovery from Friday’s losses, and the dollar’s gains are fading in the face of renewed...

• Middle East conflict. Developments dampened sentiment. Oil prices spiked & equities slipped back. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• Volatility. Geopolitical tensions can generate more bursts of volatility. This adds to the economic uncertainty stemming from various US policies.• Event Radar. AU jobs report (Thurs) is due. China data out today. In the US retail sales & Fed meeting...

Financial markets are suffering another round of tumult this morning after Israel launched dozens of air strikes against Iran, targeting its air defences, nuclear programme, and military leadership. As we go to print, it is clear that at least twenty top officials in Iran – including the military chief of staff, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, secretary of the National Security Council, and...