Weekly Chartbook, January 29

Measures of risk appetite remain soft in currency markets amid mounting concern that Donald Trump’s tariffs may prove more enduring than had been hoped. A federal appeals court yesterday granted the administration a temporary reprieve from a ruling that could have unraveled much of its trade policy, broader confidence was dented by a Wall Street Journal report suggesting the White House is weighing...

A federal appeals court has temporarily paused implementation of last night’s ruling that voided President Trump’s most wide-ranging tariffs. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued an order this afternoon allowing the administration to keep levies in place until it can hear the Justice Department’s challenge to the lower-court decision, saying “The judgments and the permanent injunctions...

Financial markets this morning celebrated a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s trade war after the bipartisan US Court of International Trade ruled that he overstepped his authority in using emergency powers to impose tariffs – but the relief rally is fading in the face of data that suggests the economy is losing momentum. North American equity indices are still marching toward solid gains –...

The dollar and equity futures are spiking higher after the US Court of International Trade invalidated many of President Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners, finding in two cases that he had substantially exceeded his authority to impose duties under federal law. Citing the president’s overreach under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a bipartisan panel of three judges this...

Traders are trimming risk after yesterday’s relief rally took market valuations a little too far. A rebound across Treasuries, equity indices, and the US dollar – initially driven by the Trump administration’s rapid retreat from tariff threats against the European Union and hints of a possible shift in Japan’s bond issuance strategy – is retracing against a still-uncertain policy backdrop. In currency...

Measures of risk appetite are improving this morning amid signs of an easing in last week’s bond market tantrum, and following a brief escalation in cross-Atlantic trade tensions. Equity markets are setting up for a near-1-percent advance at the open, Treasury yields are inching lower across the long end of the curve, and the dollar is strengthening as investors brace for a heavy slate of data releases...

• Tariff news. Threats of increased US tariffs on the EU rattled nerves on Friday. US President Trump pushed out the deadline this morning.• FX trends. US growth challenges & policy uncertainty weighs on USD. AUD & NZD edge higher. AUD & NZD also outperform on the crosses.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates (Weds). AU monthly CPI due (Weds). US PCE deflator released (Fri). Several...

Treasury markets are extending their losses this morning on worries that funding strains could reach unsustainable levels after the House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s broad-reaching tax-cut bill. By a 215-to-214 margin, the lower chamber passed what Trump has called his “one, big, beautiful” bill early this morning, with two Republicans and all Democrats voting against it....

The ‘Sell America’ trade is back in play this morning. The dollar is unwinding last week’s gains and is down against all of its major counterparts, US equity markets are setting up for a bruising open, and the Treasury curve is bear steepening*, with 30-year yields pushing back above the 5-percent threshold on growing concerns surrounding Washington’s fiscal trajectory. Oil prices are up on an unsubstantiated...

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are...