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Policymakers could hold the line.

A more bearish backdrop for the yen might unfold if the Bank of Japan holds firm, ignoring elevated inflation and indications that price growth could persist. In this scenario, wide interest rate differentials should continue to depress the yen: especially if risk sentiment remains buoyant, inflation cools, and global growth slows whilst avoiding more sinister outcomes.

USDJPY and Japan Trade-Weighted Index

US CPI in focus
1 day ago
Swings & roundabouts
2 days ago
Risk sentiment turning the corner
4 days ago
No data, no news, no volatility
1 week ago
Dollar retreats on dovish messaging from Powell, trade tensions keep simmering
1 week ago
Dollar loses momentum on fading geopolitical risks, Canadian dollar leaps on strong jobs
2 weeks ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

US CPI in focus
23 October, 2025
• Mixed signals. Sanctions on Russian producers boosted oil prices. Limited spillover into other markets. Equities rose. AUD outperformed overnight.• US inflation. US CPI due tonight. US government shutdown...
Swings & roundabouts
22 October, 2025
• Push-pull. Pockets of vol. in some asset classes. US equities eased, bond yields consolidated & USD tread water. AUD & NZD held steady.• US CPI. US Gov. shutdown ongoing. But US CPI will be released...
Risk sentiment turning the corner
20 October, 2025
• Market swings. A few bursts of volatility the past few weeks. Sentiment was positive overnight with the S&P500 rising & AUD clawing back lost ground.• US data. US Government Shutdown remains...
No data, no news, no volatility
16 October, 2025
The dollar is cruising toward a third consecutive day of declines and short-term Treasury yields are coming under mild downward pressure as investors firm bets on a fairly-forceful easing path from the...
Dollar retreats on dovish messaging from Powell, trade tensions keep simmering
15 October, 2025
The dollar is retreating and benchmark Treasury yields are plumbing four-week lows after Federal Reserve chair Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from countering market expectations for rate...
Dollar loses momentum on fading geopolitical risks, Canadian dollar leaps on strong jobs
10 October, 2025
A nascent recovery in the dollar is stalling out this morning as geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Japan, and the euro area show signs of easing. The greenback is down -0.2 percent against a basket...
Currency markets enter consolidation mode
09 October, 2025
Currencies outside the US are in consolidation mode. The Japanese yen is holding near the 153 threshold as traders turn more sceptical on the Takaichi administration’s capacity for delivering fiscal and...
Dollar recovery extends
08 October, 2025
The dollar is steamrolling over its major counterparts again this morning as investors unwind exposures in other jurisdictions and pile into bets on continued gains in American equity markets. The trade-weighted...
RBNZ: not done yet
07 October, 2025
The “Go Big or Go Home” mentality was on display once again in NZ today after the RBNZ delivered an outsized 50bp interest rate cut as it attempts to jolt the stuttering economy back to life. The decision...
Markets rally on AI hopes, yen continues its descent
07 October, 2025
Investors are making up for a lack of actual intelligence on the state of the economy by betting on artificial intelligence instead. The dollar is attracting inflows, mid-curve Treasury yields are pushing...

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