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Policymakers could hold the line.

A more bearish backdrop for the yen might unfold if the Bank of Japan holds firm, ignoring elevated inflation and indications that price growth could persist. In this scenario, wide interest rate differentials should continue to depress the yen: especially if risk sentiment remains buoyant, inflation cools, and global growth slows whilst avoiding more sinister outcomes.

USDJPY and Japan Trade-Weighted Index

US shutdown vacuum
1 day ago
Another US government shutdown
2 days ago
RBA: any more easing left?
2 days ago
US government shutdown looming
4 days ago
US Consumer Demand Holds Up, Supporting The Dollar's Rate Premium
6 days ago
Dollar Advances As Easing Expectations Pull Back
1 week ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

US shutdown vacuum
01 October, 2025
• Holding on. Markets take the latest US shutdown in stride. US equities edged up while bond yields slipped back. USD & AUD tread water.• US shutdown. No real sense of urgency to strike a deal quickly....
Another US government shutdown
30 September, 2025
• Holding firm. US equities ticked up overnight, while bond yields consolidated & USD weakened. AUD rose with AUD also outperforming on the crosses.• RBA holds. No change by RBA. Comments leant more...
RBA: any more easing left?
30 September, 2025
As widely anticipated, particularly after last week’s hotter monthly Australian CPI figures, the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.6% at today’s meeting. The Board’s decision was unanimous, and there was little...
US government shutdown looming
28 September, 2025
• Risk uptick. US equities ended a 3-day losing streak on Friday. USD eased back. AUD & NZD tick up. No change expected by RBA this week.• US shutdown. US politics in focus with another shutdown looming....
US Consumer Demand Holds Up, Supporting The Dollar's Rate Premium
26 September, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed as expected in August and personal income and spending numbers beat forecasts, making it more difficult to justify an aggressive course of rate...
Dollar Advances As Easing Expectations Pull Back
25 September, 2025
The dollar is trading near a two-week high this morning as traders pull back on overly-optimistic monetary easing expectations and adjust positions amid heavy quarter-end rebalancing. The Canadian dollar,...
Inflation & the RBA
24 September, 2025
• Market swings. US equities dipped again, while US yields & USD rose. NZD remains on backfoot. AUD unwound yesterday’s CPI induced gains.• AU CPI. Inflation hotter than expected in August. Data...
FX Momentum Dies As Fed Officials Outline Dual-Sided Risks
24 September, 2025
After most Federal Reserve officials—with the notable exception of Stephen Miran—sounded a consistently-cautious and incrementally-hawkish tone in appearances during the early part of the week, the US...
Steady as she goes
23 September, 2025
• FX consolidation. In contrast to the dip in US equities & yields the USD tread water. AUD near ~$0.66. Fed Chair Powell notes the “challenging situation”.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator...
Fedspeak Deluge Keeps Markets Guessing
23 September, 2025
The dollar is treading water against its major peers, Treasury yields are drifting lower, and equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open as investors parse mixed signals emanating from Federal...

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