We think the loonie will struggle to sustain any gains achieved in the coming months and could push above the 1.40 mark in the early new year as the lagging effects of last year’s increase in borrowing costs hit home. Although we expect a modest recovery toward the end of 2024 – mostly driven by a broader easing in global financial conditions – we remain bearish on the loonie over longer time horizons. Canada faces serious and long-term economic challenges, with overvaluation in real estate markets, spectacularly-high private sector debt levels, poor productivity, and an outsized government sector likely to impede the country’s growth potential for many years to come.

Estimated USDCAD Expiration Range by Confidence Interval