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Weekly Chartbook, January 24

The Bank of Canada set the stage for rate cuts. 

Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %

US growth and rate expectations keep rising.

Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %

But other economies might be bottoming. 

Composite purchasing manager indices, >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction

ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.

M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA

Inflation could impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.

Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. USDCAD exchange rate

US Government Reboot
5 hours ago
Markets turn rudderless as traders revert to contemplating Fed rate risks
15 hours ago
US shutdown finally set to end
1 day ago
Optimism reigns across financial markets as shutdown nears end
1 day ago
Shutdown hopes bolster risk appetite
3 days ago
US shutdown impacts showing
4 days ago

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US Government Reboot
13 November, 2025
• Market wobbles. US shutdown ends. Market jitters return. US equities fall while yields rise. USD softer versus majors like EUR & JPY. AUD slips back.• AU jobs. Employment conditions rebound with unemployment declining. Odds RBA doesn’t cut rates again have risen. China data batch due today. Global Trends There were a few renewed wobbles in risk sentiment overnight with US assets at the...
Markets turn rudderless as traders revert to contemplating Fed rate risks
13 November, 2025
Markets are struggling to gain traction this morning as the US government shutdown ends and a hawkish repricing in Federal Reserve expectations continues. Treasury yields are holding near yesterday’s levels, equity futures point to a mixed open, and the broad dollar index is edging lower as traders conclude that any boost from Washington’s return to business has largely been absorbed in market pricing....
US shutdown finally set to end
12 November, 2025
• Calm markets. Modest moves in US equities while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD tick up a bit. AUD also firmer on major cross-rates.• US shutdown. US government shutdown looks set to finally end. Delayed US data should be released over coming weeks. This may see vol. increase.• AU jobs. Monthly jobs data released today. Will the surprise lift in unemployment retrace? Solid report would support...
Optimism reigns across financial markets as shutdown nears end
12 November, 2025
Financial markets are back in risk-on mode as US lawmakers return to Washington for a vote that could end a 43-day shutdown that paused federal government paycheques, delayed vital food aid for millions of Americans, and disrupted global airline travel. House Republicans are expected to support Monday’s spending package in today’s session, clearing the way for a reopening of the government by Friday....
Shutdown hopes bolster risk appetite
10 November, 2025
The dollar is retreating and Treasury yields are slipping as the longest shutdown in American history shows signs of coming to an end. Trading volumes look light ahead of tomorrow’s holiday, but measures of risk appetite are improving and investors are moving out of safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc into economically-sensitive units like the Aussie, Canadian dollar, and Mexican peso...
US shutdown impacts showing
09 November, 2025
• Intra-day swings. More headline driven gyrations on Friday. US equities swung around. USD index a bit softer. NZD on backfoot. AUD a little higher.• US shutdown. Current US gov. shutdown longest in history. Macro impacts starting to show. Pressure on lawmakers to reach a deal is growing.• Event Radar. In Australia the monthly jobs report is due (Thurs). The China data batch is out (Fri). Several...
Canada adds more jobs than expected for a second month, loonie climbs
07 November, 2025
The Canadian economy again generated more jobs than anticipated last month, suggesting that the economy is beginning to shrug off the tariff shock. According to an update just published by Statistics Canada, 66,600 new positions were added in October and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent. Consensus estimates—which have become less reliable in recent months—had pointed to 5,000 new hires,...
Dollar retreats as conflicting datapoints skew Fed expectations
06 November, 2025
The dollar is tumbling against most of its major rivals after a private-sector report showed employers slashing payrolls by far more than anticipated, raising market-implied odds on a third consecutive rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. According to the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas job cut report—not typically a market-moving release—businesses laid off 153,074 people in October,...
Market mood improves
05 November, 2025
• Upbeat mood. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities & bond yields ticked up on the back of some positive data. AUD & NZD also rose.• US tariffs. Legality of President Trump’s tariffs is before the US Supreme Court. Market odds of a decision in Pres. Trump’s favour fell overnight.• Data flow. US Government Shutdown still in place. Official stats on hold. Bank of England could...
Selloff eases, dollar grinds higher
05 November, 2025
Currency markets are stabilising this morning as a global selloff eases and the US government shutdown enters a record-breaking 36th day. Asset prices tumbled across the financial landscape yesterday as concern over rarefied valuations intersected with expectations for a slower Federal Reserve easing cycle, but steep losses in the technology sector now appear to be reversing, demand for safe-haven...

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