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Weekly Chartbook, January 24

The Bank of Canada set the stage for rate cuts. 

Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %

US growth and rate expectations keep rising.

Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %

But other economies might be bottoming. 

Composite purchasing manager indices, >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction

ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.

M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA

Inflation could impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.

Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. USDCAD exchange rate

Dollar Firms As US Inflation Accelerates, Loonie Tumbles On Disappointing Growth Data
1 day ago
Australian CPI surprise
3 days ago
Powell Turns Dovish in Jackson Hole, Triggering Dollar Plunge
1 week ago
US Rate Cut Expectations Tumble Ahead of Jackson Hole
1 week ago
What will Chair Powell say?
1 week ago
Outlook Improves As Global Private Sector Activity Rebounds
1 week ago

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Dollar Firms As US Inflation Accelerates, Loonie Tumbles On Disappointing Growth Data
29 August, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in July, making it more difficult to justify an aggressive course of rate cuts beyond September’s widely-anticipated move. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent from the prior month, matching market forecasts as a number of key...
Australian CPI surprise
27 August, 2025
• Consolidation. Modest moves across markets. US bond yields fell again. AUD ticked higher. AUD also strengthened a bit on most of the major crosses.• AU CPI. Inflation re-accelerated with base-effects related to electricity subsidies a factor. We expect the RBA to continue to ease policy slowly.• Data flow. Fed Governor Waller speaks tomorrow. US PCE deflator due Friday night. Next week AU GDP &...
Powell Turns Dovish in Jackson Hole, Triggering Dollar Plunge
22 August, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that the central bank will soon resume cutting interest rates in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning. “The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” Powell said at the central bank’s annual gathering in the Grand Teton National Park this morning, “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks...
US Rate Cut Expectations Tumble Ahead of Jackson Hole
22 August, 2025
The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a two-week high after yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated activity data triggered a dramatic reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected easing trajectory, lowering expectations for a clear rate-cutting message from chair Jerome Powell at this morning’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady around the 4.33-percent...
What will Chair Powell say?
21 August, 2025
• Cautious tone. Hawkish Fed soundbites & positive US data saw yields tick higher. US equities slipped back. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Fed speak. Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole tonight. Speech should generate some volatility & set the tone for next week’s trading as well.• Chair Powell. Market pricing more ‘dovish’ than the Fed’s view. Will Chair Powell...
Outlook Improves As Global Private Sector Activity Rebounds
21 August, 2025
A hint of cautious optimism is creeping into currency markets this morning after a raft of activity gauges suggested that the global private sector is proving surprisingly resilient in the face of the US trade onslaught. The dollar is trading sideways, yields are up slightly, and North American equity futures are pointing to continued selling pressure, but this appears largely contained in the technology...
Currency Markets Steady As Traders Await Fed Communications
20 August, 2025
It’s quiet. Too quiet. Most major currency pairs remain trapped in tight price ranges this morning as volumes fall, but the dollar is firming slightly as traders hedge themselves against an unexpectedly-hawkish message from Jerome Powell at Friday’s meeting in Jackson Hole, and Treasury yields are pushing modestly higher. Although technology stocks are paring their losses after yesterday’s swoon, broader...
RBNZ: who let the doves out?
20 August, 2025
After holding steady last time out the Reserve Bank of New Zealand once again spread its ‘dovish’ wings at today’s policy meeting. As expected, the RBNZ announced another 25bp cut which lowered the Official Cash Rate to 3%, however the updated assessment of the economic landscape was more downbeat and opened the door to settings being moved into ‘accommodative’ territory over future meetings (chart...
Markets hit an air pocket
19 August, 2025
• Market wobbles. A small bout of risk aversion overnight. US equities declined while the USD ticked up. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ expected to cut rates again today. Will it flag even more easing down the track? NZD & AUD/NZD volatility likely to lift today.• Fed speak. Markets focused on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech (Fri night AEST). Will Chair...
Currency Market Price Action Slows, Canadian Inflation Eases
19 August, 2025
A sense of calm has descended upon global financial markets as the data cadence slows, geopolitical developments settle to a dull roar, and monetary policy expectations stabilise. Benchmark Treasury yields are almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s open, equity futures are pointing to another day of incremental gains, and measures of implied currency volatility remain low—even across short-term tenors...

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