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Weekly Chartbook, January 24

The Bank of Canada set the stage for rate cuts. 

Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %

US growth and rate expectations keep rising.

Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %

But other economies might be bottoming. 

Composite purchasing manager indices, >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction

ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.

M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA

Inflation could impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.

Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. USDCAD exchange rate

The art of the deal
2 days ago
Markets Rally On Hopes For Global Trade Ceasefire
2 days ago
Push-pull forces
3 days ago
Markets Climb On Trade Negotiation Hopes
3 days ago
Markets Open On A Somewhat-Downbeat Footing
4 days ago
Powering ahead
6 days ago

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The art of the deal
08 May, 2025
• Tariff news. US/UK trade deal ‘framework’ unveiled. Baseline 10% tariff remains. Many details still to be worked out. US/China talks this weekend.• Upbeat markets. Equities rose as did bond yields. USD claws back more lost ground. NZD & AUD drift lower. AUD outperforms NZD, JPY & EUR.• Upcoming events. China trade data released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak....
Markets Rally On Hopes For Global Trade Ceasefire
08 May, 2025
Stock futures are up and the dollar is trading on a stronger footing after President Donald Trump said he would announce a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the United Kingdom later this morning, raising hopes that a broader ratcheting down in tensions could avert lasting damage to the American and global economies. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower, while the euro...
Push-pull forces
07 May, 2025
• Mixed markets. US equities end a bit higher overnight, while bond yields eased & the USD rose. AUD & NZD gave back ground over the past 24hrs.• Macro news. US/China reportedly set to hold trade talks. US Fed ‘cautious’. No change in rates. There is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook.• Market trends. After a strong run AUD & NZD may ease back further near-term. This reflects...
Markets Climb On Trade Negotiation Hopes
07 May, 2025
The US dollar looks set to snap a three-day losing streak and stock market futures are climbing ahead of the North American open after Beijing and Washington said trade talks between China and the United States are set to begin this weekend. According to statements released by both governments, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier...
Markets Open On A Somewhat-Downbeat Footing
06 May, 2025
The dollar is retreating and North American equity futures are setting up for a second day of losses after a series of downbeat earnings outlooks from economic bellwethers like Ford and Palantir cast doubt on the growth outlook. Treasury yields are inching lower, oil prices are up slightly, and the currency markets are generally paring yesterday’s modest moves. Activity in the US services sector –...
Powering ahead
04 May, 2025
• Positive vibes. Upbeat sentiment on Friday. Reports bolstered expectations about US/China trade war de-escalation. Solid US jobs data also helped.• Market trends. US equities recorded 9th straight gain. AUD hovering at the top of its multi-month range. Labor wins Federal Election with larger majority.• Event Radar. In NZ Q1 jobs report due (Weds). US Fed & BoE also meet this week. BoE expected...
US payrolls in focus
01 May, 2025
• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY. US jobs report tonight. Signs the labour market is holding up could be USD supportive & drag on AUD.• AU election. Federal election takes place tomorrow. Polls pointing to a Labor win. We don’t...
Risk-Sensitive Asset Prices Climb As Yields Fall
01 May, 2025
Markets are rallying this morning on optimism surrounding the prospect of more easing from the Federal Reserve as well as the growing likelihood of trade “deals” between the United States and its partners. Yields are down across the curve as investors bet a slowing economy could give central bankers more room to cut rates and equity indices are climbing in line with hopeful statements from administration...
US economic tariff pain
30 April, 2025
• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs meant US GDP contracted in Q1. Forward indicators point to slower US domestic growth over 2025.• AU CPI. Q1 inflation a little higher than consensus but inline with RBA’s thinking. Underlying trends...
Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy
30 April, 2025
A six-day improvement in risk appetite appears to be stalling out across the financial markets this morning, bolstering a “mean-reversion”* trade that has seen the dollar creep higher against most of its rivals through the early part of the week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, North American equity indices are poised for losses at the open, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive...

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