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Policymakers could hold the line.

A more bearish backdrop for the yen might unfold if the Bank of Japan holds firm, ignoring elevated inflation and indications that price growth could persist. In this scenario, wide interest rate differentials should continue to depress the yen: especially if risk sentiment remains buoyant, inflation cools, and global growth slows whilst avoiding more sinister outcomes.

USDJPY and Japan Trade-Weighted Index

More talk than action
11 hours ago
Easing Hopes Unwind Further, Putting Pressure on Currency Markets
2 days ago
Expectations matter
3 days ago
Inflation Prints Higher, Further Reducing Easing Bets
3 days ago
Currencies Stall Ahead of Inflation Print
3 days ago
US inflation & the USD
4 days ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

More talk than action
13 October, 2024
• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US S&P500 hit another record. Bond yields ticked up while the USD remained range bound.• China stimulus. More positive rhetoric but no specifics about the next...
Easing Hopes Unwind Further, Putting Pressure on Currency Markets
11 October, 2024
The dollar is recovering, ten-year Treasury yields are pushing higher, and risk sentiment is worsening as traders further downgrade odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, forcing investors to brace...
Expectations matter
10 October, 2024
• Partial reversal. US equities consolidated, bond yields eased, & base metal prices rose. After a negative run AUD & NZD a bit firmer.• US inflation. Headline & core CPI a touch higher than...
Inflation Prints Higher, Further Reducing Easing Bets
10 October, 2024
Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, reducing the Federal Reserve’s scope for manoeuvre as it eases policy settings, and further depressing odds on a second outsized rate...
Currencies Stall Ahead of Inflation Print
10 October, 2024
Currency markets are losing momentum as investors brace for this morning’s September consumer price index numbers out of the United States. The dollar is holding steady after racking up an eight-day winning...
US inflation & the USD
09 October, 2024
• Mixed fortunes. Equities in China tumbled, while the US S&P500 hit a record. US bond yields rose, supporting the USD. AUD lost ground.• RBNZ cuts. RBNZ slashed rates by 50bps. The harsher NZ economic...
Diminished Rate Cut Hopes Weigh on Risk Appetite
09 October, 2024
The dollar is heading toward an eighth day of gains as fixed-income traders pull back on monetary easing expectations and brace for hawkish undercurrents in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes....
AUD/NZD: RBNZ delivers
08 October, 2024
The RBNZ has followed through and crystalized the built-up market expectations by delivering a 50bp interest rate cut at today’s monetary policy review. The move, the second interest rate reduction this...
Markets Steady As Payrolls Tumult Subsides
08 October, 2024
The dollar is consolidating near a seven-week high against its major counterparts as yield differentials normalise and safe-haven demand fades. Treasury yields are moving in opposing directions across...
USD revival
07 October, 2024
• Stronger USD. A positive US jobs report has seen US rate expectations reprice higher, supporting the USD. AUD has fallen to mid-September levels.• China reopening. Financial markets in mainland China...

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