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Expectations are falling.

Market illusions about the relative resilience of Canada’s economy have been exhausted in recent months, and swap-implied rate projections for the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have converged in a dramatic fashion. Yield differentials and the loonie have come under sustained pressure, with central bankers on both sides of the border now seen delivering rate cuts at a roughly-similar pace through the course of 2024.

Number of Rate Cuts Expected, By Meeting

Shifting Fed views
17 hours ago
RBA cuts, US inflation contained
1 day ago
RBA: (finally) a bit more relief
1 day ago
RBA & US CPI on the radar
3 days ago
US economic worries & the USD
1 week ago
Dollar Tumbles After US Job Creation Collapses
1 week ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

Shifting Fed views
13 August, 2025
• Positive vibes. Global equities pushed higher with markets factoring in a series of US Fed rate cuts. USD softer. AUD & NZD edge a little higher.• AU jobs. Volatile employment report released today....
RBA cuts, US inflation contained
12 August, 2025
• US CPI. Not as bad as feared US inflation supported sentiment overnight. US equities rose, as did US rate cut expectations. USD softer. AUD rebounded.• RBA change. RBA finally delivered another 25bp...
RBA: (finally) a bit more relief
12 August, 2025
After defying expectations by holding interest rates steady in July the RBA (finally) announced some more ‘relief’ for indebted households/businesses at today’s meeting. The RBA lowered the cash rate by...
RBA & US CPI on the radar
10 August, 2025
• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields ticked up. Limited net moves in FX. AUD & NZD tracking above their 1-year averages.• RBA focus. After surprising by holding rates steady in...
US economic worries & the USD
06 August, 2025
• Upbeat tone. US equities have rebounded over recent days, while bond yields & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD have edged a little higher.• US macro. A run of weak US data has boosted Fed rate...
Dollar Tumbles After US Job Creation Collapses
01 August, 2025
The dollar is plunging after the US labour market hit a wall last month, reinforcing market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data...
US jobs report in focus
31 July, 2025
• Mixed markets. Equities slipped back & USD ticked up overnight. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. JPY weaker after some BoJ comments.• US data. US jobs report out tonight. There has been a tendency...
US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows
31 July, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US...
USD jolt
30 July, 2025
• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations...
Fed Keeps Rates On Hold Even As Consensus Breaks Down
30 July, 2025
The Federal Reserve downgraded its assessment of the economy even as it held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, and stopped short of executing the sort of communications pivot that might...

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