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Expectations are falling.

Market illusions about the relative resilience of Canada’s economy have been exhausted in recent months, and swap-implied rate projections for the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have converged in a dramatic fashion. Yield differentials and the loonie have come under sustained pressure, with central bankers on both sides of the border now seen delivering rate cuts at a roughly-similar pace through the course of 2024.

Number of Rate Cuts Expected, By Meeting

All eyes on the US Fed
5 hours ago
US Fed in focus this week
2 days ago
Let the good times roll
5 days ago
Steady Inflation and Rising Jobless Claims Clear Path For More Fed Easing
5 days ago
AUD upswing continues
6 days ago
Markets Rally Into the Open, Supported By AI Outlook and Weaker Inflation
6 days ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

All eyes on the US Fed
16 September, 2025
• Mixed markets. US equities consolidated while yields dipped & USD weakened. EUR at multi-year high. AUD at levels last traded in November.• US Fed. Tomorrow’s Fed decision in the spotlight....
US Fed in focus this week
14 September, 2025
• Consolidation. Quieter markets on Friday. US equities near record highs. USD tread water. AUD hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• Central banks. US Fed expected to re-start its cutting cycle....
Let the good times roll
11 September, 2025
• Upbeat vibes. Largely as expected US CPI reinforced US Fed rate cut thinking. US equities rose. USD softer. AUD touched a 10-month high.• US cuts. US Fed looks set to cut rates next week. A steady downshift...
Steady Inflation and Rising Jobless Claims Clear Path For More Fed Easing
11 September, 2025
Underlying consumer price growth held relatively steady in the United States last month, and initial jobless claims jumped last week, giving the Federal Reserve room—and motivation—to cut at next week’s...
AUD upswing continues
10 September, 2025
• Positive tone. Soft US producer prices reinforced Fed easing expectations. Equities rose & yields dipped. AUD touched highest point since November.• Fed pricing. US CPI due tonight. May generate...
Markets Rally Into the Open, Supported By AI Outlook and Weaker Inflation
10 September, 2025
Optimism is rippling across the financial markets and US equity futures are setting up for another strong open after Oracle Corp. said its contract backlog exploded by a staggering 359 percent to $455...
US jobs slowdown
09 September, 2025
• Mixed markets. US equities touched a record. Bond yields rose, as did the USD. AUD drifted back after coming close to its year-to-date peak.• US jobs. Revisions to US payrolls larger than anticipated....
Easing Financial Conditions Translate Into Broad-Based Optimism
09 September, 2025
A sense of optimism is percolating across global financial markets this morning, underpinned by hopes for a drawn-out monetary easing campaign from the Federal Reserve. Long-term bond yields are coming...
Onwards & upwards
08 September, 2025
• Upbeat tone. Markets continue to factor in US Fed rate cuts. US bond yields fell further & USD weakened. AUD approaching top of its year-to-date range.• US jobs. Benchmark revisions to US payrolls...
Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Reports
08 September, 2025
Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors keep an eye on international developments and await inflation data that could alter US monetary policy expectations across the front end of...

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