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Expectations are falling.

Market illusions about the relative resilience of Canada’s economy have been exhausted in recent months, and swap-implied rate projections for the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have converged in a dramatic fashion. Yield differentials and the loonie have come under sustained pressure, with central bankers on both sides of the border now seen delivering rate cuts at a roughly-similar pace through the course of 2024.

Number of Rate Cuts Expected, By Meeting

US Job Market Hits Wall, Raising Fed Easing Expectations
12 hours ago
Bond Market Turmoil Eases As Labour Markets Slow
1 day ago
Sentiment turnaround
2 days ago
Strains Grow As Investors Shun Long-Term Debt
2 days ago
Debt worries
3 days ago
Jump In Long-Term Yields Pummels Currency Markets
3 days ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

US Job Market Hits Wall, Raising Fed Easing Expectations
05 September, 2025
The US job creation engine slowed further last month, reinforcing market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the remainder of the year. According to data just released by...
Bond Market Turmoil Eases As Labour Markets Slow
04 September, 2025
A fragile sense of calm is returning to financial markets this morning as investors revert to betting on an aggressive easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury is back...
Sentiment turnaround
03 September, 2025
• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment overnight with equities rising, bond yields falling, & the USD weaker. AUD/USD rebounded.• US data. US job openings weaker than expected. Cracks in the US jobs...
Strains Grow As Investors Shun Long-Term Debt
03 September, 2025
A global selloff in long-term government bond markets is extending this morning amid a wholesale reappraisal of sovereign debt and inflation risks. Thirty-year securities are coming under the heaviest...
Debt worries
02 September, 2025
• Debt jitters. Concerns about UK debt pushed up yields & weighed on GBP. Shaky risk sentiment supported the USD. AUD lost some ground.• AU growth. Q2 GDP released today. A few push-pull forces at...
Jump In Long-Term Yields Pummels Currency Markets
02 September, 2025
Traders are cutting risk and global interest rates are ratcheting higher as investors sell long-duration instruments this morning, suggesting that a relatively calm summer in financial markets is quickly...
US economic trends in focus
01 September, 2025
• Quiet markets. US holiday overnight. European equities ticked up. USD a bit softer. AUD near the top of its multi-week range.• Economic trends. US macro headwinds continue to build. Markets are pricing...
Dollar Firms As US Inflation Accelerates, Loonie Tumbles On Disappointing Growth Data
29 August, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in July, making it more difficult to justify an aggressive course of rate cuts beyond September’s widely-anticipated move. Data...
Australian CPI surprise
27 August, 2025
• Consolidation. Modest moves across markets. US bond yields fell again. AUD ticked higher. AUD also strengthened a bit on most of the major crosses.• AU CPI. Inflation re-accelerated with base-effects...
Powell Turns Dovish in Jackson Hole, Triggering Dollar Plunge
22 August, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that the central bank will soon resume cutting interest rates in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning. “The balance of...

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