Chartbook: February 13

• Positive tone. Solid start to the week for risk assets. Equities rose, as did copper. USD softer. NZD (+1.3%) & AUD (+1%) outperform.• Macro trends. China data showed signs of improving momentum. Topline US retail sales weaker than expected. Growth trends weighing on the USD.• Central banks. Over coming days the Bank of Japan, US Fed, & Bank of England meet. Will the US Fed be more focused...

• Positive vibes. Prospect of more China stimulus & German fiscal spending supported sentiment. Equities rose on Friday, as did AUD & NZD.• Tariff impacts. US tariff effects showing up in the data. US consumer sentiment tumbled, while inflation expectations jumped up.• Event Radar. A busy week ahead. China data & US retail sales (Today), BoJ (Weds), US Fed, AU jobs, NZ GDP, & BoE (all...

• Tariff news. Threats of more tit-for-tat tariff moves between the US & EU unnerved markets. Equities & bond yields fell. AUD & NZD dip.• More vol. S&P500 now in “correction” territory. More vol. likely as 2 April approaches. This is when the US will announce ‘reciprocal’ tariffs.• Macro events. A busy week ahead macro wise. China data (Mon), BoJ (Weds), US...

• Improved sentiment. After a difficult spell risk appetite improved a little overnight. US equities rose, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD edged higher.• Tariff news. After the US confirmed tariffs on steel & aluminium imports the EU unveiled countermeasures. Canada also announced more steps.• US CPI. Inflation cooled in the US. This supported risk markets. But the data doesn’t yet capture...

• US jobs. Lukewarm US jobs report didn’t stir the market pot. US equities rose, as did bond yields. EUR extended its upswing. AUD drifted back.• EUR strength. Prospect of more EU fiscal spending is supporting the EUR. AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP down near multi-year lows. Is too much priced in?• Event Radar. US CPI (Weds) due. Bank of Canada (Weds night) expected to cut rates again. News about US...

Markets have joined economists in thinking that trade wars really aren’t good, or easy to win. After weeks of dizzying changes in US tariff policies, the S&P 500 is down 7 percent from all-time highs, Treasury yields have fallen sharply, and the dollar is down against all of its major counterparts—despite this morning’s relatively-stable non-farm payrolls report. In the latest development, Donald...

• Mixed markets. US equities fell. ECB cut rates but gave off ‘hawkish’ vibes. EUR holds onto recent gains. AUD up near its 4-month average.• Push/pull. US tariff news still evolving. Pres. Trump announced temporary exemptions on some imports from Mexico & Canada. The art of the deal?• US jobs. Monthly US jobs report due tonight. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks on the outlook. These...

The peso is surging after Donald Trump announced another pause in tariffs on Mexico—only three days after putting them in place. In a post on his social media platform, the president said, “After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This Agreement is until April 2nd. I did...

Markets are turning down ahead of the North American open as global bond yields ratchet higher and extreme levels of policy uncertainty cripple investment and spending decisions in the world’s largest economy, narrowing expected growth differentials across the major currency blocs. The trade-weighted dollar is down more than 2 percent on the week, ten-year Treasury yields are lagging their international...

Some semblance of calm is returning to financial markets this morning after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the administration could agree to relax tariffs on Canada and Mexico by this afternoon. Equity indices plunged, Treasury yields tumbled, and risk-sensitive currencies sold off during yesterday’s session as investors expressed concern over the growth-negative aspects of the...